Unprecedented. Uncertain. Historic. Frantic. Challenging.
Words have been used daily to describe the sudden havoc COVID-19 wreaked on the food system and the economy as America worked to slow the spread of the disease and save lives while we kept a nation fed.
State of the Industry 2020
OverviewBeef (NCBA)
Beef (FQF)
Pork
Chicken
Turkey
Veal
Lamb
Seafood
Food Safety
Workforce
Sustainability
Packaging
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As the pandemic spread across the country, every stage of the food supply — from farm, to processor, to retailer and restaurant operator — was presented with challenges. But within those difficulties were opportunities to adjust business to meet the changes in consumer behavior and serve customers differently.
In the early stages of the pandemic, the rapid shuttering of restaurants and stay-at-home orders led to massive shifts in retail shopping habits. According to Datassential research fielded March 13-14, about half (47 percent) of households said they stocked up and were planning to eat at home more. This was even more pronounced in families with children, as 62 percent said they were prepared to hunker down.
While all grocery departments were affected by this massive, seismic shift in behavior, the meat department was hit hard. At a time when consumers were grabbing more protein for their shopping carts, many pork processing plants were either closed or had scaled back production considerably as they dealt with issues surrounding employee health and safety.
Annual Pork Forecasts
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
Production (million lb.) | 24,941 | 25,584 | 26,315 | 27,638 | 28,237 | 28,445 |
Per capita disappearance (retail lb.)* | 50.2 | 50.2 | 51.0 | 52.4 | 51.0 | 50.6 |
Pork exports (million lb.) | 5239 | 5632 | 5877 | 6321 | 7547 | 7650 |
Pork imports (million lb.) | 1091 | 1116 | 1042 | 945 | 861 | 895 |
Forecasts are in bold. * Per capita meat and egg disappearance data are calculated using the Resident Population Plus Armed Forces Overseas series from the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. All data as of Sept 17, 2020. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Supporting Materials. For further information, contact: Mildred M. Haley, mhaley@ers.usda.gov
While things have improved on the supply side of the equation, demand for meat — but especially pork — remains at all-time record highs. From March 1 to Aug. 30, IRI reports that fresh meat volume at retail is up 16 percent from the same period a year ago, with fresh pork outpacing that growth at 17 percent. Other pork cuts are also seeing record growth with ham (20 percent), dinner sausages (19 percent), breakfast sausages (29 percent) and bacon (24 percent) all moving off the shelves.
REFRIGERATED BREAKFAST SAUSAGE/HAM:
Top 5 Retail Brands
Brand | Dollar Sales | Dollar Sales % Chg YAgo | Unit Sales | Unit Sales % Chg YAgo |
Jimmy Dean | $648,588,150 | 15.5% | 163,780,407 | 15.7% |
Private Label | $239,711,388 | 15.2% | 90,846,307 | 16.2% |
Johnsonville | $231,725,327 | 13.2% | 67,054,264 | 8.3% |
Bob Evans Farm Fresh Goodness | $144,814,885 | 17.9% | 39,272,338 | 14.3% |
Odom's Tennessee Pride | $126,342,867 | 17.0% | 32,761,925 | 12.7% |
Total Refrigerated Breakfast Sausage/Ham | $2,098,027,961 | 16.5% | 602,808,051 | 1 13.0% |
Total Breakfast Meats | $7,804,482,663 | 16.1% | 1,684,949,680 | 11.4% |
Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research fi rm (@iriworldwide). Total US - Multi Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Sept. 6, 2020. Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brands (e.g. all brand lines/extensions rolled up into a single figure), but rather individual brand lines.
Of specific note, ground unseasoned pork is up 24 percent, and presents a significant opportunity for retailers. According to National Pork Board research, 45 percent of ground pork shoppers had not purchased ground pork in the prior 12 months, and among those “new” ground pork shoppers, 13 percent made at least two purchases between March and June. Since March, ground pork has brought in the highest percentage of shoppers to the ground segment compared with other ground meats.
REFRIGERATED DINNER SAUSAGE:
TOP 5 RETAIL BRANDS
Brand | Dollar Sales | Dollar Sales % Chg YAgo | Unit Sales | Unit Sales % Chg YAgo |
Johnsonville | $760,007,710 | 19.4% | 177,095,963 | 11.1% |
Hillshire Farm | $539,308,712 | 12.1% | 154,416,946 | 4.9% |
Private Label | $504,182,798 | 24.2% | 125,808,928 | 18.8% |
Eckrich | $339,215,736 | 21.4% | 97,253,380 | 11.3% |
Hillshire Farm Lit'l Smokies | $150,043,891 | 6.6% | 42,163,961 | 1.1% |
Total Refrigerated Dinner Sausage | $4,251,042,047 | 18.3% | 1,061,434,587 | 11.2% |
Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research fi rm (@iriworldwide). Total US - Multi Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Sept. 6, 2020. Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brands (e.g. all brand lines/extensions rolled up into a single fi gure), but rather individual brand lines.
A number of research reports confirm what we’ve known for a while: consumers want fresh, minimally processed and nutritious food. According to FMI’s 2020 Grocery Shopping Trends report, most consumers (84 percent) believe eating at home is a healthier option, and half (52 percent) are cooking for family members who follow a diet, such as low-carbohydrate, gluten-free or paleo. They’re looking for options that fit their budget, lifestyle and cooking abilities. But they want foods that taste good and offer something new and different.
REFRIGERATED FRANKFURTERS: TOP 5 RETAIL BRANDS
Brand | Dollar Sales | Dollar Sales % Chg YAgo | Unit Sales | Unit Sales % Chg YAgo |
Ball Park | $641,412,307 | 20.1% | 159,921,208 | 11.1% |
Oscar Mayer | $404,363,972 | 8.5% | 124,607,351 | -1.2% |
John Morrell Nathan's Famous | $324,852,644 | 29.2% | 60,960,050 | 12.3% |
Bar-S | $319,160,527 | 10.7% | 234,872,999 | 7.4% |
Hebrew National | $187,806,561 | 14.0% | 37,240,149 | 4.7% |
Total Refrigerated Frankfurters | $2,736,722,565 | 15.1% | 866,877,009 | 3.9% |
Source: IRI, a Chicago-based market research firm (@iriworldwide). Total US - Multi Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers), latest 52 weeks ending Sept. 6, 2020. Note: Rankings of top brands are NOT totaled brands (e.g. all brand lines/extensions rolled up into a single figure), but rather individual brand lines.
The desire for new and different are likely the result of weariness and fatigue brought about by the food fatigue of preparing more meals at home. When you combine this with a pent-up wanderlust from an inability to travel, they’re missing the dining experiences they would have enjoyed when traveling across the state, the country or the globe. The need for interesting meal options is especially high.
According to our research conducted repeated during the last several years, there are key needs consumers have, that pork is uniquely suited to address:
- Flavor and taste: Pork is craveable and offers a variety of authentic culinary experiences.
- Connections/making memories: Pork is a centerpiece of many multicultural dishes that generations of families have enjoyed at key milestone celebrations
- Family meals: Pork is as easy to prepare, as it is versatile, so it fits into the family meal routine.
- Good for me: There’s not a long list of ingredients in pork. Eight cuts meet U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) guidelines for “lean,” making them a good choice for the whole family.
- Sustainability and stewardship: For six decades, America’s pig farmers have produced pork responsibly, using farming techniques that protect the planet and are focused on animal welfare.
- Farm to fork: We have a good story on how pork is produced. Consumers can feel confident about purchasing, cooking and eating pork.
The pandemic has (and will continue to) change much about how our industry operates and how consumers think about food. Some of these changes will be temporary, while others are here for the long term. The challenge before all of us who fill the meat case is to turn the behavior driven by anxiety in the early stages of the pandemic into habits driven by affinity for our products.
Jason Menke is director of Marketing Communications for the National Pork Board. Contact him at JMenke@porkboard.org or (515) 223-2629. NP