February review

• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for February 2025 fell to 64.7, marking a significant decline of 9.8% from January and a 15.9% decrease from February 2024. It represents the lowest reading since late 2023. The decline was particularly notable in the Current Economic Conditions Index, which dropped 12.5% compared to January, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers due to concerns over tariffs and inflation. 
• A February 210 Analytics survey found that 81% of consumers say they are aware of the tariff negotiations, up substantially from 55% in early January. Self-reported understanding is mixed, with two-thirds of consumers saying they have limited to no understanding of the tariffs. Yet, 79% of those consumers who are aware of tariffs are concerned about the impact on their personal financial situation. This includes concern over the cost of groceries, gasoline, etc. but also worries over employment impacts.
• In response, the nation’s eye continues to be on sales promotions along with limiting the purchase of non-essential items. Lower-income consumers are the most likely to be concerned and implement a host of changes to their food buying behaviors, including eating at restaurants less often. 
• Consumers estimate that 79% of all meal occasions in February were sourced from home. Lower-income households tend to purchase restaurant food much less often, with 24% not having purchased any restaurant food in February compared with 12% of higher-income households. 
• When purchasing restaurant food, takeout and delivery are more popular than on-premise dining, especially among lower-income consumers. 

Inflation insights

In February 2025 (the four weeks ending 3/2/2025), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe stood at $4.33. This reflects an increase of 2.5% over February 2024. Center-store prices averaged $4.01, an increase of 1.8% over February 2024. Fresh food prices averaged $4.33, which was an increase of 4.0% over February 2024. The February price increase in perishables was substantially influenced by eggs. Egg prices continued to be highly elevated from historic levels, due to HPAI’s ongoing impact on egg layers. Per USDA, egg prices dipped by $1.85 per dozen over the past month, but did caution that prices could rise again due to demand for the Easter season. 

The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $4.80 in February 2025, up 4.3% year on year. Processed meat prices rose the least in February, at +0.6% in sharp contrast to the prices of fresh meat that increased 6.0%. 

February experienced a mix of price movements at the protein level. Beef continued to experience inflation with the February rate of increase of 7.5% sitting above the 52-week average increase of 5.1%. Other areas with a higher rate of increase in February versus the full-year look include pork, chicken, turkey and lamb. 

On the processed meat side, bacon inflation slowed to just 0.7% and prices for dinner and breakfast sausage were fairly stable.

Meat sales 

Fresh meat increased dollar sales by 12% in February, easily outperforming the 1.4% increase in processed meat, leading to an overall 8.8% increase over February 2024. The four February weeks generated $8.2 billion, with $5.9 billion for fresh meat. While inflation played a role, pound sales increased by 5.7% in fresh, but this result was pulled down by the 0.7% increase in processed for an overall gain of 4.4% year on year. 

In 2024, Lent started on Valentine’s Day. In 2025, Lent started March 5. Without a doubt is positively impacted meal sales both on the Valentine’s Day holiday but also the subsequent two weeks.  

In the 52-week view ending March 2, dollar sales gained 5.7%. This increase reflects a combination of mild price increases and pound gains of 2.7%. Importantly, pound sales were also easily ahead of two years ago, at +2.9%. 

The week ending Feb. 16 reflects most of the Valentine’s Day-related sales. Dollar sales grew 12.6% year-on-year and pound sales improved by 7.5%.

The other weeks also grew dollars and pounds, with only the final week having a slightly lower growth rate of 1.2% for pounds.

 Assortment

Meat department assortment, measured in the number of weekly items per store, averaged 451 SKUs in February 2025, which exceeds the average number of items for most of 2024.

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Despite inflation, beef grew pound sales by 8.5% year over year. Ground beef played a big role in that, but premium areas such as Ribeye and sirloin also grew pound sales year-on-year. 

The entire fresh meat aisle had a strong February performance with gains for all but veal. In the full-year view, lamb had the highest year-on-year pound increases, at +11.6%, followed by beef and chicken. 

Processed meat 

Processed meat reflects a range of performances in February. Packaged lunchmeat decreased year over year in dollar and pound sales. Bacon, processed chicken, dinner and breakfast sausage experienced strong growth in dollars and pounds. 

The February rates of increase were generally better than those seen in the full-year view. Pound growth for breakfast sausage moved from -0.5% for the 52-week view to +3.2% in February — potentially related to consumers switching to breakfast sausage given the record-high egg prices. 

Grinds
 Ground beef had another enormous month, with $1.3 billion in sales during the four February weeks. This was an increase of 17.6% in dollars and 7.5% in pounds versus February 2024. Ground chicken and lamb also had double-digit gains this month. 

During the latest 52 weeks, ground beef sales reached $15.7 billion, with a 4.5% increase in pounds.

What’s next?

• The much later Easter timing will push most sales into the second quarter of 2025 versus the first quarter last year. This will impact the year-over-year performance of many departments around the store in the March and April reporting as well. For the February report, it is important to look beyond the holiday impact and focus on the longer-term trends. 
• Consumers and the food industry alike are pointing to uncertainty regarding inflation and tariffs in their short-term outlook. Uncertainty typically leads to more restraint spending by consumers, along with more focus on promotions and at-home meal occasions. 

March Madness is around the corner and viewership trends from the last few years show significant growth in both men’s and women’s basketball. The growth in viewership combined with dozens of games create opportunities in snacking- and entertaining-related sales, much like the Super Bowl and other large sporting events.  

Date ranges: 

2024: 52 weeks ending 12/29/2024         

Q4 2024: 13 weeks ending 12/29/2024       

February 2025: four weeks ending 3/2/2025