In April 2024 (the four weeks ending 4/28/2024), the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe increased 1.9% versus April 2023. The expanded MULO+ universe includes additional retailers in the e-Commerce, grocery, club, DTC delivery and other channels, fueling an average expansion of 15% across total CPG. All time period history and geographies have been updated to MULO+. 

Prices in the fresh perimeter were up 0.7% in April versus year ago, whereas center-store grocery prices increased 3.4%. The April prices across food and beverages were 33% higher than they were pre-pandemic. 

The average price per pound in the meat department across all cuts and kinds, both fixed and random weight, stood at $4.64 in April, up 4.1% from year-on-year. With the bulk of Easter sales shifting into March, holiday-related promotions would have had a bigger impact on the April 2023 prices. Processed meat tends to have the higher prices and reflect the different Easter promotions’ timing. 

April brought a mix of price movements. Beef, turkey, exotics (including bison) and smoked ham saw an increase in the average price per pound. Chicken prices were flat, whereas others, such as lamb, packaged lunchmeat and sausage decreased in price. 

Meat sales 

After three strong months, April brought an expected decrease in pound sales due to the shift in Easter timing. Overall, pounds were down 2.1% but the decrease was driven by processed meat. In the 52-week view, pounds were up 0.5% and dollars increased by 5.4% year-on-year.   

The first week of April experienced a 9.3% decrease in dollars and 15.1% decline in volume. Yet, reflecting everyday demand, the second through fourth weeks of April had pound growth, delivering a positive pound performance for fresh meat.

Assortment

Meat department assortment, measured in the number of weekly items per store, averaged 426 SKUs in April 2024 — holding steady around 40 to 50 items below pre-pandemic levels.

Fresh meat sales by protein 

Fresh experienced a strong performance in April, despite the Easter impact and inflationary conditions. Beef pounds increased 2.3% year-on year in April and 0.3% in the full-year view. Only the holiday meats, turkey and lamb, experienced pound declines in April. Veal sales have been soft throughout the past few years. In the 52-week view, pound sales are up 1.1% year-on-year, with the strongest performances by chicken, lamb and fresh exotic that includes bison. 

Processed meat 

April processed meat sales were $2.3 billion. Given the impact of smoked ham sales during the Easter season, both dollars and pounds were down year-on-year. However, the net impact is reflected in the 52-week view, which shows flat pound sales for smoked ham. Bacon and dinner sausage increased pound sales in the full year view. Dinner sausage also had a strong April. 

Grinds
 In addition to the strong performance by chicken in the current environment, the larger grinds did well also. Ground beef, despite the inflation seen in the beef category, increased pound sales by 5.1% in April 2024 versus April 2023. In the full year view, pounds increased 1.6%. Ground chicken and pork, in particular, had a big month. The April performance for ground lamb was an exception as seen by a very different and more favorable performance in the 52-week view. 

What’s next?

The 210 Analytics survey found that holidays, special occasions and entertaining are the top three reasons when shoppers tend to be willing to spend a little extra. This could be a premiumized purchase or an extra item to round out the occasion.

• May has a number of big holidays that can help turn 2024 into a growth year, including Cinco de Mayo, Mother’s Day and the unofficial start of grilling season, Memorial Day. According to the April Circana research, 53% of Americans plan some kind of special activity for Memorial Day, led by 34% getting together with friends and family and 26% firing up the grill. 
• Additionally, retailers have been successful with self-invented holidays and occasions that help attract shoppers to the store and aisle. 
• The next two reasons to spend a little extra are if something is deemed a little healthier or to do something nice for themselves. Younger generations are more focus on the nutritional content and benefits of foods and beverages — a powerful reason to call out important nutrients on the front of pack. Self-care is becoming a growing sales driver for not just little indulgences but also to spend a little extra on a favorite brand, flavor, type or production attribute. 

 The next performance report in the Circana, 210 Analytics and Hillphoenix series will be released mid-June 2024 to cover the May sales trends. 

 Date ranges:

2023: 52 weeks ending 12/31/2023

Q1 2024: 13 weeks ending 3/31/2024

April 2024: 4 weeks ending 4/28/2024