As of the end of July, pork in retail reached $7 billion in sales, down 4.1% in dollars and 2.2% in pounds, respectively, from the year before, according to Circana data. Circana’s data shows pork’s price per pound was $3.14 from July 2022 to July 2023, down 2% from 2022.
Anne-Marie Roerink, principal of 210 Analytics, said that fresh pork is still behind both beef and chicken.
Roerink noted the relevance of promotions for retailers. “Over the past year, 38% of fresh pork dollars were sold while on promotion,” Roerink said. “That was an increase of 6.1%.”
She said that consumers were purchasing larger-size packages to save their dollars.
In contrast to pork in general, pork grinds saw an increase in both sales and pounds, reaching $206 million in sales as of the end of July, up 5.1% in dollars and 3.1% in pounds, respectively, from the year prior, according to Circana.
Roerink went on to discuss the processed side of the pork industry, noting that many dollars reside in that side of the industry.
“Bacon is actually experiencing a comeback in pounds, however, the uptick in demand is unable to offset the dollars lost due to deflation,” she said. “Prices are down to $6.25 per pound, which is a decrease of nearly 8% versus year ago levels. Retailers are also promoting bacon more often.”
She said that dollars in the pork category also reside in smoked ham, sausage, hot dogs, and lunch meat.
Roerink noted dinner sausage has performed well, though it is experiencing some pressure in pounds. Smoked ham had a bit of a different issue, seeing an increase in dollars but not pounds, she said.
U.S. pork exports got up to 219,014 metric tons in July, up 5% from the last year, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. Through July, pork exports reached 1.69 million metrics tons, 13% higher than 2022, with a value of $4.67 billion, an increase of 10%.
Pork exports surpassed levels from last years, and though they were lower in Japan, China/Hong and South Korea, exports thrived in the Western Hemisphere and in areas of the Asia-Pacific, according to USMEF president and CEO Dan Halstrom.
Charlie Arnot, CEO of The Center for Food Integrity, said that producers are currently concerned with making profits. “You haven’t been profitable for a while, and forecasts for profitability aren’t that great,” he said.
Producers are facing financial stress, but Arnot pointed out that a potential decrease in producers might not impact pork supply.
“Every time the industry goes through one of these cycles you see some rationalization, where producers will decide that this is a good time for them to exit … Sometimes the producer exits but the pigs stay in production, which then doesn’t actually reduce supply.”
Concerns about the environment, including feed and genetics, are impacting producers and the market, Arnot said. He noted that, even though producers are struggling with profitability, there is also demand to address environmental issues, which can go against profitability.
“And so you’ve got two competing pressures coming to bear, where producers are trying to figure out how do they manage those two things simultaneously,” Arnot said.
