IFMA debuts 2023 Foodservice Industry Forecast at marketing, sales conference

Industry will see inflation of 7.7%, says association.

The International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA) released its 2023 Foodservice Industry and Segment Projections today at its annual Marketing & Sales Conference. The forecast, which is hosted on the IFMA Scope platform, projects that operator spend in the foodservice industry will decline by 0.1 percent, considered flat on a real basis in 2023, compared to 2022. The forecast models were created in conjunction with Datassential, a foodservice research firm, and validated by operators from the Foodservice Leadership Councils, who act as advisors to IFMA and its Board of Directors.

While the projection is for flat growth in 2023 in real terms, IFMA projects that the industry will see inflation of 7.7 percent. This means most foodservice segments will spend more in 2023 than they did in 2022 as a result of higher cost of goods rather than increased consumer demand. These projections are based upon several key assumptions, including an economic recession in 2022, supply chain constraints, labor shortages, and many white-collar employees continuing to work remotely rather than in the office.

"The foodservice industry has shown remarkable resilience throughout the pandemic and concurrent global economic challenges, and it isn't over," said Phil Kafarakis, IFMA president & CEO. "The need for a deeper understanding of our unsettled environment is greater than ever. IFMA offers our members proprietary data through IFMA Scope and we work with them to interpret that data's impact on their businesses. Our research helps members and our industry prepare for what's ahead."

Some of the key highlights from the 2023 segment real growth comparisons to 2022 include:

The total restaurant category—including full-service and limited-service restaurants—is projected to decline one percent. This expected decline is due to diminishing consumer demand due to a projected economic recession.
Quick service restaurants (QSR), which have performed significantly better in recent years than other segments overall, are projected to decline 0.8 percent, while the Fast Casual segment declines 1.3 percent.
Full-service restaurant segments, including Midscale and Casual Dining, are also both projected to decline in 2023, down 2.2 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.
Collectively, On-Site segments in 2023 are projected to grow 2.4 percent, largely because their recovery from 2020 was slower than that of restaurants. Additionally, many On-Site segment locations are "recession-proof."

IFMA members can access all projections, including an early look at 2024, through the IFMA Scope portal, which provides an interactive and immersive view of real-time segment and market demographic information to aid in business planning.

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