USDA foresees soft consumer demand keeping hog prices in check

Hog slaughter for September through November 2023 was 1.7% higher than the same period in 2022.

USDA outlook

Fourth-quarter pork production is up 25 million pounds to 7.09 billion pounds, 2.4% higher than in the same period a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Hog prices are expected to average $54 per cwt. for the quarter, down 15% compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. USDA foresees soft consumer demand for pork persisting and keeping hog price increases in check. October pork exports increased 5.7% year over year, with strong shipments to Mexico and other Western Hemisphere markets. USDA forecasts U.S. pork exports for 2024 at about 6.9 billion pounds, up slightly (1.5%) from the 2023 export forecast.

Pork production

U.S. pork production and supply trends from the Pork Checkoff:

Hog slaughter for September through November 2023 was 1.7% higher than the same period in 2022.
Pork trim prices are under pressure but are finding premiums for boxing, freezing and transportation.
The loin market remains strong, fueled by robust retail/export demand.
Exports to Mexico continue to power ham values.

Pork at retail

At retail, November saw year-on-year deflation for processed pork products, including bacon, packaged lunchmeat, dinner sausage, breakfast sausage and smoked ham, according to Circana retail market analysis. The per-pound price for fresh pork in November 2023 was $3.21, up 2.3% from year-ago levels. For the 52-week period ending Nov. 26, 2023, fresh pork prices averaged $3.14, down -1.8% from year-ago levels.

Fresh pork sales for November 2023 were $493 million, down -1.9% in dollar sales from a year ago and down -4.1% in pounds sold for that time period, according to Circana. For the latest 52 weeks ending Nov. 26, 2023, fresh pork sales totaled $6.9 billion, down -5.4% for dollar sales versus a year ago and down -3.6% for pounds sold.

Ground pork saw sales of $18 million in November 2023, with dollar sales up a hair at 0.1% while pounds sold slid -1.2% from year-ago levels. For the 52-week period ending Nov. 26, 2023, sales of ground pork were $207 million, with dollar sales rising 2.1% and pounds sold up 2% versus 2022.

Chief Editor, National Provisioner.

Fred Wilkinson has been writing about food industry news and trends for business audiences for more than 25 years.

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